Paper: Evaluation the Efficiency of the FOMCs New Economics Projections
Author: Natsuki ARAI (Contact: natsuki.ar@gmail.com)
Journal: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Date: 9/15/2015
Folder Title: Aggregation Bias

Description of the files contained in the folder:

Matlab Files:
1. McAggBias: Main code for Monte Carlo exercise to examine the aggregation bias

Matlab Function files:
2. McPosterior: Providing multiple draws from the posterior mean of estimated VAR
3. McPosRev: Computing artificial forecast revisions based on different posterior
4. McInf: Computing p-values for artificial projections
5. rSquare: Computing R square of artificial projections
6. Bias: Computing the bias of forecasts
7. AuCo: Computing the autocorrelation of forecasts
8. Wald: Computing the Wald statistic of forecasts
9. SigMat: Transforming the values of forecast revisions into the signs of forecasts revisions 
10. RevTest: Computing the p-value based on the positive sign test
11. ConRevTest: Computing the p-value based on the signs of consecutive revisions test
12. OrgPj: Organizing the projections for the bootstrap inference

Matlab Data Files:
13. Cen Tend: Data of central tendency in the FOMCs economic projections
14. Range: Data of range in the FOMCs economics projections
15. Monte: Historical data of 
